JAMESTOWN – An almost rinse and repeat of Monday in the weather department today. Nice sunshine with milder temperatures.
It looks like we will end the month of February quite mild, but also wet, with some pockets of rain showers throughout the day on Wednesday.
However, we are watching the potential for a winter storm Thursday night, through Friday afternoon.
Based on the newest data we have, it looks as if the rain on Thursday will changeover to snow, as the temperatures drop into the lower 30s through the nighttime hours.
This snow will continue throughout the morning hours on Friday, finally coming to an end during the later afternoon hours.
While there is still MAJOR uncertainty within the exact amount of snowfall we could see out of this, the potential does exist for significant accumulation south of Lake Ontario.
The biggest pieces in the forecast of this storm will be, trying to figure out the timing of the rain to snow changeover, how much colder air will feed into this, allowing for the precipitation transition, and how long will the changeover take to complete?
If the changeover is quick, that could allow for a larger window for snow to accumulate. But if the changeover is slow, the totals could be held down, with the advent of continuing rain throughout the transition period.
Again, there remains some pretty substantial uncertainty, and we will get a better idea on this storm as we get closer to the event.
First Defense Forecast:
Today: Nice, blue skies and sunshine. A few high, fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Milder than yesterday. Highs 50 in the valleys, to 55 at the lakeshore. South wind 8 to 17 MPH.
Tonight: A mainly clear sky. Lows 32 to 37. Southwest wind 4 to 8 MPH.
Wednesday: Spotty to scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, and mild. Highs 53 to 56. The immediate Lake Erie shoreline communities will likely be a tad cooler. Southwest wind 7 to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 50%.
Thursday (Happy 1st Day of March)!: Scattered rain. Cloudy and a touch cooler. High 49. Chance of rain 80%.
Friday: Scattered to widespread snow. Colder. High 34. Chance of snow 90%.
Saturday: Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy. High 39. Chance of precip 40%
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 42.
Monday: A few scattered rain showers. Partly sunny. Milder again. High 45.