JAMESTOWN – The sun is out shining brightly down on you this afternoon, but some rain will be coming our way tonight and throughout the day on Tuesday.
A front out to our west will be pushing in throughout the nighttime hours, bringing its associated rain and thunderstorm activity with it. Some of that rain could be moderate to heavy at times, potentially leading to some localized flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center does have the extreme southern portion of Chautauqua County under a less-than-average “Marginal” Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening however, I just do not expect any severe activity. That’s not to say that a couple storms could have some brief gusty winds, maybe upwards to 40 MPH, but not to severe limits. Keep in mind, the scientific definition of a “severe” thunderstorm, as classified by the National Weather Service, is one that is producing wind gusts 58 MPH or greater, hail one inch in diameter or larger (the size of a quarter), or a tornado.
While our in-house VIPIRCast model is showing more scattered activity for the afternoon hours tomorrow, I honestly think it’s under-doing the rain coverage, along with the rainfall amounts. A general rainfall will range between one inch, to one and a half inches, through early Wednesday morning. Some localized totals upwards of two inches are likely.
Things begin to dry out on Wednesday and Thursday, when a nice warming trend will take place. That warmth will last through the Memorial Day weekend, as we make a run at 80 on Saturday, but a few more showers and thunderstorms are likely during that time.