JAMESTOWN – After a dry and comfortable Monday, things will be getting active in the weather department once again as we head into Tuesday.
A very deep area of Low pressure spinning north of Kansas City will be moving across the Ohio River Valley and into Western New York throughout the day on Tuesday, increasing our rain chances.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Chautauqua County under a standard Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow, with a less-than-average Marginal Risk (1/5) for the remainder of Western New York.
We will likely start the day wet with a few passing showers and thunderstorms from time to time in the morning hours. As we work through the early afternoon, we will likely see a break in the rain coverage for a few hours. There is the potential the sun may peak out of the clouds during this time, which would help to further destabilize the atmosphere and become the fuel source for the next round of storms in the late afternoon and early evening.
Based on the newest model guidance, we believe the main timing window for the strongest activity will be between 4 and 7 PM. The main threats will be from damaging winds along with the potential for some very heavy downpours as well, which could lead to some flooding issues.
Rain will continue for Wednesday but a passing Cold front knocks our temperatures down to the upper 60s! (average is 78). That will be a nice little preview of fall.
We dry out towards the end of the week with plentiful shine and some warmth and humidity coming back into the picture for the weekend.
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