Fantastic Tuesday, Chance For Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon

JAMESTOWN – High pressure remains in control of our weather for the afternoon today, bringing us nice sunshine and warmer temperatures.
As we work throughout the evening, that High pressure will erode, and that will allow a system to move its way towards Western New York, and trigger off a few scattered showers for the overnight hours. That rain will continue in pockets for the morning hours on Wednesday.
Wednesday afternoon is our main concern, as another round of showers and thunderstorms will move towards Western New York out of the west by around 4:00 PM through 7:00 PM, and some of those storms could pack a punch.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has the western-most portion of our region under a less-than-average “Marginal” Risk (1/5), with a standard “Slight” Risk (2/5) off to the east.

Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook

The main impacts from these storms will likely be stronger wind gusts, and some heavy rainfall at times.
Wednesday thunderstorm impacts

As I mentioned yesterday, some areas actually do need a good soaking, as parts of the region are running over one inch below normal rainfall for the month of June. Some of the computer model guidance is suggesting rain totals between a quarter of an inch and a half inch throughout the day on Wednesday.