Feeling Like Spring; Flood Watch Through Friday Afternoon. Temps Spike Next Week

JAMESTOWN – It’s a mild day out there today unfortunately, it’s also a gloomy and wet one. 
The National Weather Service keeps the Areal Flood Watch in place for much of Western New York, until 4:00 PM Friday. The combination of the warmer temperatures today and moderate rainfall, will elevate the flood risk along rivers, creeks, and streams from melting snow and ice. If you live near a flood-prone area, play attention to all Flood Warnings, if and when issued.
Winter returns for the end of the week, before a developing La Niña spikes temperatures back above average for next week.
The two prime global computer models we use, the American GFS and the European Ensembles, are in the same ballpark of a 60+ degree day by Wednesday of  next week. However, things have been changing from model to model run, so this forecast is subject to change between now and then.
First Defense Forecast: 
Today: Mostly cloudy. Developing rain in the afternoon, some moderate rainfall is possible. Very mild! Highs of 51 lakeshore to 57 inland. Healthy Southwest wind 12 to 18 MPH. Chance of rain 60%
Tonight: Pockets of steady rain. Some moderate rainfall is possible. Patches of fog will likely develop by dawn, especially in the valleys near the Allegheny River. Lows 33 to 37. Southwest wind 4 to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 100%.
Friday: Early wintry mix, changing to all snow by the afternoon. Falling temps throughout the day; starting out 34 to 38, dropping into the mid to lower 20s. A bit breezy, with a Northwest wind of 7 to 15 MPH. Chance of precip 50%. Less than one inch of snow accumulation.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a snow shower or snow flurry throughout the day. High 37. Chance of snow 20%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. A bit warmer. High 42.
Monday: Scattered rain showers. Mostly cloudy and milder. High 51. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday:. Scattered rain showers. Mostly cloudy intervals. Very mild. High 59. Chance of rain 50%
Wednesday: Scattered showers. Mostly Cloudy. A “hot” day! High 60. Chance of rain 50%