JAMESTOWN – We’re getting set for the longest stretch of hot weather we’ve seen so far this season as we head into the holiday weekend.
First off, a system in the midwest will be moving towards Western New York throughout the night tonight, and lasting through Wednesday. While we were addressing the potential for a few of those storms to intensify to strong or severe levels earlier in the week, we now thing the highest severe perimeters will be to our south and west. However, the potential still does exist for maybe one or two storms to become severe through the afternoon hours of Wednesday.
Some of those storms could also contain some heavy rainfall as well, potentially leading to some localized flooding issues, with model guidance suggesting rainfall amounts between a half inch to three quarters of an inch.
The bigger story will be this weekend. An impressive heat ridge will build across the Northeast, which will soar temperatures to dangerous levels across much for the east coast. For Western New York, we are expecting our first heave wave of the summer by this weekend (a heat wave is classified as 3 or more convective days at 90 or above).
Saturday through Monday will likely be record breakers. The numbers on the Quick Solutions 7 Day Forecast might even be a bit underdone by a couple degrees, as I’m trending with a ‘cooler’ solution. It is not out of the question a few pockets around the region may even break the 100-degree mark during this stretch.
It’s also not the heat we’re going to be dealing with, the humidity will be just down right nasty. Based on the newest data, a good calculation of heat indices, which is how hot the air feels to the human body, will likely range between 95 to upwards of 110 degrees through this several day period.
We will likely see the National Weather Service issue Heat Advisories and maybe even an Excessive Heat Warning for this weekend, as our weather will be the H’s; Hot, Hazy, and Humid, through the July 4th holiday week.