More Rain For Sunday, Lake Effect Rain And The First Flakes Early Next Week

JAMESTOWN-It’s been a soggy weekend so far across Western New York, and more of that is on the way for Sunday. The Lake Effect Rain machine on Lake Erie fires back up on Monday, with the first snow flakes of the season expected Tuesday.

On The Map: Scattered to widespread rain showers are flaring behind and ahead of a Cold front that’s sweeping across Western New York, along with a Low pressure system attached to the front. Rain showers will continue throughout the night tonight, as the front continues to move across our region.

Another Low centered across the upper Michigan peninsula will drop towards Western New York late Sunday, which will be prime for lake effect rain to setup off Lake Erie during the day on Monday, lasting through Tuesday.

To The Models: Computer models are very consistent in plotting a band of lake effect rain off Lake Erie, associated with another Low dropping down from Michigan, across Western New York on Monday. Much as is the case with the localized nature of lake effect, the band could contain some heavy downpours, leading to some flooding. The winds pick up late in the day; west-southwest 15 to 25 MPH, with some gusts up to 35 MPH possible, lasting through Monday night.

The in-house model we have in the weather center is pointing to rain totals between one-and-a-half to two inches across the area through Tuesday, with up to four inches in areas eastward towards the Genesee Valley and Central New York, where they have a Flash Flood Watch in effect. Keep in mind, this is a general rainfall prediction; your number will vary, especially in spots where the heaviest rain are found within the lake band on Monday.

As the temperatures drop into the upper to mid-30s across the area Monday night, it is not out of the question that a few wet snow flakes will mix in with the rain early Tuesday morning. Again, that snow will be wet, as temperatures down at ground level will just barely be cold enough to stick, so we still are not expecting much in the way of accumulation; a dusting on the hills, if anything.

Halloween Forecast: Tuesday night is looking mainly dry, but cold! There is a slight chance for a rain or snow shower early in the evening, but it should remain a mostly cloudy night. Temp comes down to the lower 30s across the area! Brrrrr! Make sure you bundle up those kids, before you send them out Trick or Treating.

Quick Check Of The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center declared Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday. Philippe is the 17th tropical disturbance, and 16th named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season. Philippe has winds of 40 MPH, and a central pressure of 1002 millibars.

The system is centered just due south of the Florida Keys, and is expected to scoot towards the northeast, impacting South Florida with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, before moving out into the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the South Florida coast, along with Tropical Storm Warnings for the Bahamas.