JAMESTOWN – The humidity will make a return to Western New York once again for the weekend, trigging off scattered showers and storms each day.
Storms out our west are slowly fading away as they move across Lake Erie, thanks to a nice ridge of High pressure over the region. While today will be rain-free, there will be a few more clouds in the sky this afternoon, as the leftover clouds from those dying thunderstorms move in.
A front further back to our west will be moving in our direction over the weekend, along with very muggy conditions. Due to the high levels of humidity, showers and storms will pop ahead of the front late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
You know how these airmass thunderstorms work; they popup at random times during the peak heating hours of the day and not everyone will see them. That’s why we label airmass storms the “thunderstorm lottery.”
The better chance of rain, in coverage, will be late Saturday afternoon as the front sweeps across the region. Even with the front, rain coverage will not widespread, with the best chance for rain in the Southern Tier.
There is the chance that some of these storms could contain some gusty winds and as a result, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Western New York under a less-than-average Marginal Risk (1/5) for Saturday afternoon.
The same story will continue into Sunday and Monday, with the “thunderstorm lottery” in full swing. There will be pockets of nice sunshine in between the showers and storms each day, so by no means it will be a total washout.
The better chance of rain comes on Tuesday, where showers and storms will likely be widespread, which is a bit of good news for those who have parched for rain this summer. Some of those storms could also contain some gusty winds and heavy rainfall, so we will have to keep our eyes on that.
Looking beyond, we cool back off to below-average highs Wednesday and Thursday with plentiful sunshine to go around and low humidity.