Potential For A Few Gusty Thunderstorms This Evening


JAMESTOWN – The majorly of the day will be dry as a bone with nice sunshine. However, rain will be developing late this afternoon and through the evening hours tonight.
An elevated front will be moving across the region tonight, triggering off the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The potential does exist that a couple of those storms could become strong to severe in nature with gusty winds.
In response to that, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of Western New York under a less-than-average Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening. The SPC updated the Connective Outlook at 1 PM to include a standard Slight Risk (2/5) for portions fo Northwest Pennsylvania, extending back into Ohio.

Updated severe weather risk from the SPC for this evening

In terms of timing, the best window for shower and storm activity across Western New York will be between 8:00 PM and 12:00 AM. The threat still does exist for a few more showers and storms after Midnight but the severe threat should diminish by then.
High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model depicting a line of showers and storms across the Southern Tier by around 8 to 9 PM tonight.

Looking ahead, we will end July on a cooler than average pattern, which we have been advertising for the past few days. While there does remain a rain chance nearly each and every day for the next week, none of the days will be a total washout. There will be some nice dry time in between the rain coverage.
Jammers Forecast: The Jamestown Jammers cancelled their home game against the Mohawk Valley Diamond Dawgs last night due to poor field conditions from all the recent rain. They have scheduled a home double header for Friday against the Newark Pilots. First pitch for Game 1 is slated for 5:00 PM, and  Game 2 at 7:05 PM. However, Mother Nature may not cooperate. The chance for scattered showers are in the forecast for Friday afternoon and evening. We’ll keep on eyes on it as we go through time.
Jammers forecast for Friday

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