Potentially Stronger Storms This Afternoon Ahead Of A Brief Cool Down

JAMESTOWN – The severe weather threat remains across Western New York for this afternoon and early this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has pulled the standard Slight Risk (2/5) further northward to include the entire region under a severe risk for this afternoon. This is all associated with a series of fronts that will be moving across the region.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Day 1

The first front, a Warm one, passed through earlier this morning and triggered off some soaking rain for the morning commute. The next front comes behind a deep area of Low pressure that will be scooting by just to our west throughout the day today. It’s this Low that we are concerned about for the late afternoon hours today.

This is a tricky forecast, no doubt. All of that rain with the passage of the first front this morning helped to stabilize the atmosphere across Western New York. What we’re going to be keeping an eye on is the break in the rain coverage early this afternoon.
With the air cooler and more stable, we need to rely on the presence of sunshine during this break to help work the air over and fuel the next round of storms. It’s not a guarantee that the sun will peak out this afternoon. If the clouds hang tight, there won’t be much for the next round to tap into, which will limit the overall severe threat going into this evening. We think the main window for the strongest activity will be between 5 and 8 PM this afternoon.
Today’s thunderstorm impacts.

If any stronger storms do manage to get going, it’s mainly going to be a damaging wind gust threat, but the potential does exist for some small hail as well. These storms will also continue to drench the Southern Tier in torrential rain. Our exclusive in-house high resolution BAMS model has been aggressive in showing rainfall total over one inch, upwards of over two inches in spots.
Project rainfall totals from our in-house 2km BAMS Model.

Make sure you stay Weather-Ready through this afternoon. Have a have of getting watchings and warnings should be they issued. A NOAA Weather Radio and a good smartphone app that is deigned to push warnings work best.
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