Rejoice! Warmth Is Coming To Greet You…And It’s Sticking Around For Awhile

JAMESTOWN – The nice, beefy, warmup we’ve been advertising for the past week  or so, is finally getting under way this week.
Before we dive into all the juicy details, let’s reflect on the past 30 days of our lives, and put April in retrospect.
The graphic you see down below is a daily high calendar throughout the month of April. The days colored in blue represent an observed high temperature that was below average, the orange-colored days were above average, and gray indicates an observed high that was exactly at average for that date.

As you can see, we spent the majority of the month below average, often well below the averages for the month. 
There were a total 23 below-average days, 5 above-average days, and 2 exactly average days throughout the month. When you do the math, the average mean high temperature for April 2018 was 46-degrees. The average monthly high for April is 56. This means April ran 10-degrees cooler, on average, compared to where we should have been for the month.
April 2018 currently ranks as the 8th coldest April on record in Western New York (records for Western New York date back to 1871).
Now since April is in the rear-view mirror, let’s talk about the first week of May.
We have a very good shot of hitting the big 8-0 sometime tomorrow, and the best chance of that will be inland way from the lake breeze.
The current model guidance has pushed a lot of the cloud cover and rain back to the very late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday. With sunshine for the peak hours of the day, that will give us a crack at breaking into the lower 80s for period.
An advancing cool front to our west will trigger another batch of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Thursday.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of Western New York under a less-than-average “Marginal” risk (1/5) for severe storms Thursday afternoon.

The main threat here is the potential for some gusty winds in a couple of these storms, in isolated nature. While threat of severe weather isn’t zero, it’s also not that high either.
Still, it’s something you will need to keep an eye on during the afternoon on Thursday.