JAMESTOWN – The sunshine and the humidity will flair showers and storms this afternoon before the passage of a Cold front increases those thunderstorm chances.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center maintains the less than average Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon across all of Western New York. While the popup storms early this afternoon may produce some brief gusty winds, the main action will be as a Cold front inches closer to the region later today.
Your First Defense: We’ve adjusted the timing window to include those popups and are now thinking a 5-hour window from around 3 PM to 8 PM this afternoon to see some of the strongest storms. The primary threat with storms this afternoon will be gusty winds, but a touch of small hail cannot be ruled out.
Areas near the Lake Erie shoreline, in particular near the Buffalo/metro region, will likely be protected from storms this afternoon from what is called a “lake shadow”; a heathy breeze of lake wind which acts sort of like a front and focuses thunderstorms more inland away from the lake breeze.
After the front passes, the temperatures and the humidity will sharply drop for Thursday and Friday, making it a much more comfortable end to the workweek.
As we head into the Labor Day weekend, the humidity will, once again, be making a return to the region with longer-range guidance suggesting a rather warm start to September.
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