JAMESTOWN – As we have been advertising, we will be going though a severe weather threat later in the day today as apart of a strong Cold front. After that front passes the area, a big swing in temps will welcome us into Fall.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe risk across all of Western New York to an Enhanced Risk (3/5), meaning the SPC feels very confident about this event.
The breakdown: A squall line of thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of a strong Cold front late this afternoon and evening and will become severe as the heating from early sunshine will increase thunderstorm convection.
The squall will begin to move into the region by 6 PM this afternoon and race eastward at a speedy pace. The storms should all be east of Western New York by 8 or 9 PM this evening.
With this rapid forward motion of the line, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 MPH. An isolated spin-up tornado is possible but the risk a tornado is rather low, but it is there.
Storms may not be as intense near the Lake Erie shoreline, due to a strong Southwest breeze off the lake. That lake breeze may help to weaken the storms a bit as they move in. However, the high resolution computer modeling have been consistent in showing quick reintensification of the line inland away from the lake breeze with a bow-like structure to the line.
Behind The Front: Temperatures will be knocked down a good 15+ degrees for the weekend, starting fall below average in the 60s. We should rebound back to around average (70) by early next week with a few rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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