First Defense: Winter Storm Warning For Heavy Wet Snow Through Wednesday


JAMESTOWN – A complex storm system will cross through the region over the next 48 or so hours. This is the same system that brought blizzard conditions to Kansas City over the weekend.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Southern Erie and Wyoming Counties, going into effect at Midnight and lasting through 6 PM Wednesday.

The setup: The deep area of Low pressure associated with the storm system will cross through Western New York later today and behind it, drag a Cold front on through. As temperatures drop tonight, all the rain will change over to snow throughout the overnight hours.

A good 2 to 4 inches could already be on the ground by there morning commute tomorrow. Snow will continue throughout the day Tuesday with moderate to heavy snowfall at times.
After the front moves through, that will shift the winds around to the west, directly across Lake Lake. That creates an unknown with this forecast; how much lake enhancement could there be? Computer models do not do a good job handling this kind of lake effect, hence the complication.
In terms of snowfall totals, a good hefty amount of 12 to 15 inches are possible along the highest hills on the Chautauqua Ridge and the Boston Hills. 8 to 12 inches possible on the lower elevations with lesser amounts south and east.

If we can get some lake effect going, that could bump up a couple of these totals by a few inches, especially on the hills.
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